Unifying Practical Uncertainty Representations: II. Clouds

There exist many simple tools for jointly capturing variability and incomplete information by means of uncertainty representations. Among them are random sets, possibility distributions, probability intervals, and the more recent Ferson's p-boxes and Neumaier's clouds, both defined by pairs of possibility distributions. In the companion paper, we have extensively studied a generalized form of p-box and situated it with respect to other models . This paper focuses on the links between clouds and other representations. Generalized p-boxes are shown to be clouds with comonotonic distributions. In general, clouds cannot always be represented by random sets, in fact not even by 2-monotone (convex) capacities.Comment: 30 pages, 7 figures, Pre-print of journal paper to be published in International Journal of Approximate Reasoning (with expanded section concerning clouds and probability intervals

Holidays and Turnout at Presidential Elections in France: An Update

International audienceThis short note aims to update the model of Dubois and Ben Lakhdar (2007) which showed the significant impact of holidays on the turnout at French presidential elections. The main result of this update is that holidays are still relevant in the explanation of turnout after the sample was expanded in both spatial and temporal dimensions. More precisely, estimations from a sample composed of the maximum number of territories (96 Metropolitan departments) and of the maximum number of periods (9 elections between 1965 and 2012) indicate that holidays affect the turnout rate by about 1 point

The Influence of Local and National Economic Conditions on French Legislative Elections

International audienceThis article's aim consists in building and estimating a model which explains and forecasts the outcomes of the French legislative elections by department. This model, which constitutes the first attempt for such a geographical level, emphasises the role of the economic and political factors in the explanation of the legislative vote. The model seems to be very accurate in forecasting the elections of the past at the local and national level. Furthermore, its behaviour for the 2002 election was very satisfactory. This model is therefore a reliable alternative to the vote intention polls as an electoral forecasting instrument

Boundary Element and Finite Element Coupling for Aeroacoustics Simulations

We consider the scattering of acoustic perturbations in a presence of a flow. We suppose that the space can be split into a zone where the flow is uniform and a zone where the flow is potential. In the first zone, we apply a Prandtl-Glauert transformation to recover the Helmholtz equation. The well-known setting of boundary element method for the Helmholtz equation is available. In the second zone, the flow quantities are space dependent, we have to consider a local resolution, namely the finite element method. Herein, we carry out the coupling of these two methods and present various applications and validation test cases. The source term is given through the decomposition of an incident acoustic field on a section of the computational domain's boundary.Comment: 25 page

More on Seasonal Determinants of Turnout: Holidays and French Presidential Elections

International audienceThis article aims to test a proposition widely spread among scholars and journalists according to which holidays would have an impact on electoral turnout. To our knowledge, this possibility has not been investigated in the French case yet. Our data, gathered for the last three presidential elections, strongly support a negative effect of holidays on turnout. Since turnout and left vote are linked, this negative influence helps to explain the defeat of the main left-wing candidate in 2002 even though it does not represent the single factor

Climate and Electoral Turnout in France

International audienceIt is commonly stated that the climate has an impact on electoral turnout. This article aims to test this proposition that has not been scientifically proved in the French case yet. Using the last five parliamentary elections turnout data and the corresponding climatic data on the voting day, our study shows that rain has a depressing effect on turnout, whereas sunshine and high temperatures incite people to vote

First Records for \u3ci\u3eAeshna Sitchensis\u3c/i\u3e (Odonata: Aeshnidae) and \u3ci\u3eEnallagma Clausum\u3c/i\u3e (Odonata: Coenagrionidae), and a Northwestern Record for the State-Endangered \u3ci\u3eSomatochlora Incurvata\u3c/i\u3e (Odonata: Corduliidae) in Wisconsin

While surveying for Odonata in coastal peatlands and associated shoreline areas adjacent to Lake Superior in Wisconsin, we documented populations of two new state record species, the zig-zag darner (Aeshna sitchensis Hagen) and the alkali bluet (Enallagma clausum Morse). We also located a robust population of the state-endangered incurvate emerald (Somatochlora incurvata Walker) at the northwestern edge of the known range of this species. Adults and exuviae of A. sitchensis and S. incurvata were found at an insular fen on Stockton Island, Ashland County, within the Apostle Islands National Lakeshore (AINL). Breeding of both species had occurred in areas of the fen where small pools had dried by summer. Additionally, a single adult male A. sitchensis was collected in the City of Superior in Douglas County. Adult E. clausum were found at two sites: on the Lake Superior beach near the mouth of the Sand River within the AINL in Bayfield County, and along the northeast shore of Allouez Bay in the City of Superior in Douglas County